As US watches on, China-Saudi relations grow in importance

By Shehab Al-Makahleh and Giorgio Cafiero

Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Riyadh for a three-day trip, underscoring the constantly growing importance of Sino-Saudi relations, and a clear message from Saudi Arabia that it will not take diktats from the United States.

Xi’s first trip to Saudi Arabia in six years gives Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) a greater opportunity to assert his influence on the international stage as an increasingly important figure in global affairs.

This week’s meetings will mostly focus on the economic dimensions of the Sino-Saudi partnership. According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the kingdom and China will sign agreements worth $29.6bn. Such agreements will add to trade, business, and investment relations between the two countries that have greatly deepened in recent years.

China is Saudi Arabia’s top crude oil market, accounting for more than 25 percent of all Saudi crude oil exports in 2021. These export earnings help the Saudi government maintain its “social bargain”, explained John Calabrese, director of the Middle East-Asia Project at the Middle East Institute, in an interview with Al Jazeera.

Additionally, these earnings are extremely important for Saudi Vision 2030 — Saudi Arabia’s grandiose economic diversification agenda, including with respect to the futuristic city of Neom, which is currently being built.If the smart city proves successful, Saudi Arabia can expect its cooperation with the Chinese to further expand in

many ways, particularly mindful of the potential for many Chinese tourists to visit Saudi resorts on the Red Sea.

“Saudi Arabia is partnering with China to accelerate the kingdom’s digitalisation of the energy sector and the digital transformation of the economy more broadly,” observed Calabrese. “China is also an important investment destination for [petroleum and natural gas company] Saudi Aramco as the latter seeks to expand its downstream activities in Asia. Cooperation in the development of hydrogen and in renewables is in its incipient stage but could blossom.”

From Beijing’s perspective, Saudi Arabia is an extremely important source of energy that greatly matters to the future of China’s economic growth.

“The Chinese need to know that Riyadh can remain a reliable producer,” Dave DesRoches, an assistant professor at the National Defense University in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera. “Particularly now when it looks as if Iran, which Beijing has been relying on for lots of its oil … might be ramping down its ability to export as people become more concerned about Iranian export of weapons to Russia.”

US concerns

There are some signs that the bilateral partnership is expanding and taking on greater security dimensions.

“The dominant ties between China and Saudi Arabia are predicated on commercial activity. However, many global relationships and alliances, bilaterally and multilaterally, began this way and then expanded to other realms, including in the traditional defence areas,” Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program, told Al Jazeera.

A year ago, CNN reported that Beijing supported Saudi Arabia’s indigenous ballistic missile production efforts, which is a case in point. Also, in certain niche areas, such as armed drones, the Chinese have made sales to Saudi Arabia’s weapons development, filling gaps that the US has chosen not to fill for Riyadh.

Washington has grave concerns about the defence and security aspects of the Sino-Saudi relationship. “The challenge for the US, vis-à-vis the China-Saudi relationship, is that Beijing is simply easier to work with from Riyadh’s perspective,” said Panikoff. “It views China as politically consistent, refrains from lecturing Riyadh on issues such as human rights and doesn’t have cumbersome end-user restrictions on military hardware.”

Nonetheless, China is nowhere close to replacing the US as Saudi Arabia’s defence guarantor. There are no indications that Beijing could or would attempt to do so in the foreseeable future. – Al Jazeera