India’s Military Ascendancy: From Regional Power to Global Force

• SIPRI Report Reveals India’s Surge in Military Spending, Self-Reliance Drive Amidst Escalating Geopolitical Tensions

The latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) paints a picture of India’s burgeoning military prowess, showcasing a significant climb in global rankings.

With a military expenditure totaling $83.6 billion in 2023, India secured the fourth position worldwide, marking a notable ascent from its previous fifth-place standing. This increase is primarily attributed to the escalating costs of personnel and operations, which constituted approximately 80% of the total military budget.

In the global landscape of military spending, the United States, China, and Russia maintained their positions as the top three spenders, with India closely trailing behind, followed by Saudi Arabia. India’s military expenditure witnessed a commendable surge of 4.2% from the preceding year and an impressive 44% increase since 2014.

This growth trajectory aligns with the broader global trend of escalating military expenditures, which soared to a staggering $2.43 trillion, marking a notable 7% increase.

The report underscores India’s steadfast commitment to bolstering the operational readiness of its armed forces, particularly amidst the backdrop of ongoing tensions with neighbouring countries, notably China and Pakistan.

Despite the significant rise in overall military spending, capital outlays for military procurement remained relatively stable at around 22% of the budget, with a significant portion, 75%, allocated towards domestically manufactured equipment. This strategic allocation underscores India’s unwavering pursuit of self-reliance in arms development and production.

The top five spenders, comprising the United States, China, Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia, collectively accounted for a substantial 61% of global military spending. The report emphasizes the pivotal role played by ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, in driving up global military expenditures, alongside escalating geopolitical tensions in regions like Asia and the Middle East.

India’s heightened focus on modernization and self-reliance in defence equipment is palpable, partly propelled by border tensions with China and Pakistan. Furthermore, the global military burden rose to 2.3% of global GDP in 2023, with the average military expenditure as a share of government expenditure reaching 6.9%, the highest level since 1990.

A noteworthy shift towards domestically produced equipment is observed, with 75% of India’s military spending directed accordingly in 2023, representing a significant rise from the previous year. This aligns seamlessly with India’s strategic aim of achieving self-reliance in defence production.

The interim budget for the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in FY2024-25 reflects this commitment, with a substantial increase in allocations aimed at bolstering military modernization and self-reliance initiatives.

The unveiling of the interim budget occurs amidst a backdrop of a fast-deteriorating global security environment, characterized by conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, alongside escalating geopolitical tensions between major powers, particularly the United States and China.

This geopolitical landscape underscores the imperative for India to fortify its defence capabilities and foster self-reliance in defence production, amidst evolving global dynamics and strategic challenges.

In the vicinity of India, the ongoing border tensions with China underscore the persistent security challenges posed by its northern neighbour. With a substantial deployment of over 50,000 Indian troops to counter China’s assertive maneuvers along the border, India’s stance towards China is expected to remain security-oriented in the foreseeable future.

While historically focused on land-based threats, China’s evolving menace now extends to maritime, cyber, and space domains, propelled by significant naval expansion supported by robust shipbuilding capabilities and increased military spending, positioning the Chinese Navy as the world’s largest.

Despite the Chinese Communist Party’s primary focus on Taiwan’s “reunification,” its expanding presence in the Indian Ocean, deemed vital to India, presents a quandary for the Indian Navy. Hindered by limited resources within the defence budget, particularly compared to other branches of the armed forces, the Indian Navy faces challenges in matching China’s naval capabilities.

Consequently, India seeks to bolster partnerships with like-minded navies to curb Chinese influence, especially west of the Malacca Strait, with initiatives such as embracing the Quad and supporting the AUKUS trilateral alliance, alongside enhancing naval cooperation with countries like the US, the UK, France, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Meanwhile, Pakistan, a steadfast ally of China, continues to pose a threat to India, although its hostility has waned amid economic and security crises. India remains wary of Pakistan’s deepening strategic ties with China, notably in naval cooperation, evidenced by the imminent induction of Chinese vessels and joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean.

Beyond its immediate vicinity, the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict renews volatility in a region critical to India’s energy security and home to a sizable Indian diaspora. Further complicating matters, attacks by Iran-backed Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea disrupt global trade flows, prompting military responses from the US and UK, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict.

In response, the Indian Navy deploys warships to safeguard maritime interests, albeit at the risk of diverting resources from countering Chinese naval dominance in the Indian Ocean.

Additionally, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war impacts India’s economic and military security, driving up global commodity prices and hampering Russian arms supplies to India.

Concurrently, Western defence industries face constraints in fulfilling Indian demands amid their commitments to conflict zones. These developments underscore the need for self-reliance and strategic planning in India’s defence preparedness amidst evolving warfare dynamics.

Despite these challenges, India’s adept diplomacy and robust security measures, bolstered by its rising economic prowess, have navigated global geopolitical complexities. Despite economic setbacks from the COVID-19 pandemic, India’s resilient economy has rebounded, propelling it to the fifth-largest economy globally, with sustained growth trajectories aiming for a $5 trillion economy by 2027 and $7 trillion by 2030.

While macroeconomic indicators reflect stability, concerns persist over public expenditure quality, with increased reliance on debt financing for infrastructure investments.

In conclusion, India’s significant climb in global military rankings, as highlighted by the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), underscores the nation’s burgeoning military prowess.

However, India faces multifaceted challenges, including geopolitical tensions and conflicts in regions critical to its security interests. The evolving global security environment underscores the imperative for India to fortify its defence capabilities and foster self-reliance in defence production amidst these dynamics.

Despite these challenges, India’s adept diplomacy, coupled with its resilient economic growth trajectory, positions the nation to navigate global geopolitical complexities effectively. As India aims for continued economic growth and self-reliance in defence, strategic planning and resource allocation will remain paramount in addressing evolving security challenges.