The games they play
With the Elections Commission now on formal record that the forthcoming presidential election must be held on a date between Sept. 17 and Oct. 16, 2024, the attention of both the media and the electorate will inevitably become more focused on the upcoming contest. While incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is serving former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s balance term which ends on Nov. 19, has not yet declared his own candidature, his intimates have positively stated that he is a runner.
Much that is happening in the political space right now are pointers in that direction. The common perception at this point of time is that the three principal contenders will be Wickremesinghe, who is trying to cobble together a broad alliance to back him and is ulikely to run under UNP colours, Sajith Premadasa of the SJB and Anura Kumara Dissanayake to the NPP/JVP.
The ruling Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna (SLPP) of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa has remained remarkably shy of saying whether they are backing Wickremesinghe, who GR first appointed prime minister and SLPP then elected to serve GR’s balance term, or whether they have any other candidate in mind. Though MR has said that son Namal has “more time,” the dynastic ambitions of the Rajapaksas are no secret and Namal has not ruled himself out of the running. Other functionaries of the purple sataka (originally kurakkan) brigade often say they will reveal their candidate at the “right time.”
Billionaire businessman Dhammika Perera, who entered parliament taking Basil Rajapsksa’s national list seat and briefly served as GR’s Minister of Investment Promotion in June-July 2022 also harbors presidential ambitions. He has barely opened his mouth in parliament since his appointment to the legislature but recently made public appearances in the SLPP May Day rally and later at the opening of that partyt’s election office at Nelun Mawatha to which party organizers had been summoned. On both occasions he was clad in his trademark blue suit and red tie, looking quite the puduma satha among the political hoi polloi present at the events. Perera also appeared at one of his own DP Education events at the Nelun Pokuna theatre alongside both MR and RW. The presence of Wickremesinghe at a Dhammika Perera show was a rare occurrence.
As Dr. Nihal Jayawickrema, the respected lawyer and academic, wrote in this newspaper last Sunday, the constitution is very clear on when a presidential election must be held. As such he expressed puzzlement on why a widely viewed television news channel persisted with the refrain “When’s the election?” However that may be, the Elections Commission either on its own initiative or for some other reason like media inquiries, made a formal announcement of the period during which the presidential election must be held stopping short of naming a day. Observers point out that the Commission had stated the obvious despite not being under any obligation to do so.
One possible reason for this could be Mr. Basil Rajapaksa’s continuing pressure on the president to call a general election before a presidential contest. It is very well known that the constitution enables the president to dissolve an incumbent parliament two and a half years after its election. Given that the sitting legislature was elected in August 2020, and that time period has now elapsed, Wickremesinghe, if he wishes, can dissolve parliament and an election must be held thereafter. But he has been resisting the SLPP demand for an early parliamentary election.
It is fairly clear why Basil Rajapaksa, the founder of the SLPP wishes to have a parliamentary election before a presidential race. If whatever horse the SLPP backs, be it Wickremesinghe or any other, his/her defeat will cost votes at the parliamentary election due by August 2025. Of course any parliamentary election in the short term is possible not only by the grace and favor of the president but also by law. A resolution passed with a simple majority in the 225-member legislature any time now, that is with 113 votes, will compel an election.
The SLPP at present commands that majority. But the current picture is that a number of its MPs do not favor an early parliamentary election for various reasons. Among these is that first timers in the legislature will not qualify for a pension if they have not completed five years of parliamentary service. Also, there are those MPs who doubt their own re-election prospects and would prefer to serve the full term in the incumbent legislature rather than face a premature poll. So whatever Basil Rajapaksa’s wishes and calculations are, the required numbers will not be possible without the backing of sections of the opposition. That is unlikely to be forthcoming.
Apart from the three main contender identified earlier, there are other hopefuls who will throw their hats into the ring as demonstrated in previous presidential elections. Also, many ‘dummy’ candidates are usually run by serious contenders looking for their candidate privileges. Various formations are taking place at present, hints and speculation abound and there will be more to follow between now and the actual polling date which is likely to be announced some time in July.
While aspirants abound, most of them will do as badly as similar runners for the presidency have done in the past. But all kinds of games including some comedies are afoot and the country must await further developments in the not too distant future.
